Fed Cuts Half Point to 1%…Stocks Decline, Mortgage Rates Steady

The news on today’s Fed cut is this: It was expected and likely won’t significantly help the economy.  The policy statement acknowledged that the economy has slowed significantly and that further “downside” risks remain.  It also noted that lower energy and commodity prices are promoting “price stability.”  This means that inflation is now much less of a concern than it has been over the past 6 months.  At 1%, the Fed Funds Rate is at it’s lowest level in many decades, yet the statement keeps the door open for further reductions. 

Stock prices were all over today, but the Dow closed down about 80 points.  10 year treasury yield moved up to 3.85% and mortgage rates remained steady.  If tomorrow brings a change in mortgage rates, it will probably be for the worse.  I do think, however, that rates will soon dip lower again. 

Click this link to read the Fed Statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081029a.htm

Mountain Biking in the Lakes Basin…Graeagle to Elwell and Back

Last Sunday, I finally completed a ride in the Lakes Basin that I had been wanting to do all year.  I ended up going solo, which was cool.  Generally, I prefer partners in the mountains, but sometimes being alone is nice.  4 hours of quiet can be hard to come by these days. 

I started the ride at the market in Graeagle and rode up the Gold Lake Highway about 6 miles to the Bear Lake trail head.  From there I rode along Bear Lake and above the south shore and east shores of Long Lake towards Mt. Elwell.  Eventually, I went over the top of Elwell and descended north back towards Graeagle on the Mt. Elwell Trail and Smith Creak Trail. 

This was an amazing ride.  The decent from Elwell to town is about 3500 vertical feet and the riding is generally very good – some steep and rocky terrain, but lots of fun, smooth single track too.  All in all, this was one of my best rides of the year.

For a map of the trails in the Lakes Basin, click this link. http://www.sierratrails.org/web/pages/events.html

  

  

Just to be current, rates are now up…

Since rates were last down, they have gone up.  30 year fixed rate pricing is now above 6.5% with no-points.  The Fed is meeting later today and a significant cut is likely, so it is safe to expect more movement.   Look for another, more thorough, update after the announcement.  

All buyers should be in close contact with their mortgage people.  Rates are moving so much that from one day to the next, potential monthly payments are changing significantly.

Rates Lower, Obviously Still Volatile.

Mortgage rates are continuing to demonstrate significant volatility.  Today this was manifest in a .25% drop in fixed rate pricing.  Now fixed rate loans are available in the 6.250% range with no-points and under 6% with one point.  At some points last week, rates were .5% higher. 

Why is this happening?  As I mentioned in my last post, general volatility in the financial markets is creating volatility in mortgage rates. 

Also, don’t be surprised if stock prices and mortgage rates improve, or get worse, together.  Usually when one gets better (for example, stocks move higher), the other gets worse (rates move higher).  Last week and today, the opposite happened.  When stocks fell, rates went up.  And when stocks rallied, rates dropped. 

This has been happening, at least in part, because investor appetite has been shifting less in terms of one asset class versus another and more in terms of appetite for something versus appetite for nothing. 

When a more normal environment returns, so will the old relationships between mortgage rates and stock prices.  In the meantime, who knows.

Mortgage Rates Higher, More Volatile…

Here is a recap of the past week and a half.  Monday before last, 30 year fixed rate pricing was slightly under 6% with no-points.  By Wednesday morning, it was slightly lower.  By Wednesday afternoon, it had moved up to 6.375%.  By Friday afternoon, it had moved higher still to 6.625%.  This happened as the Dow moved into the low 8000s and temporarily erased all investor gains since 2003.   This morning, rates were near 6.8% with no points, close to the highest level of 2008.

Generally, mortgage rates drop when stocks tank, but late last week the opposite happened.  Mortgage rates moved sharply higher while stocks moved sharply lower.  And the Fed cut too.  So what’s a buyer to do?  (Or anyone considering refinancing?)

My advice is keep in touch with your mortgage advisor (or call me if you don’t already have a good relationship with a lender) and watch the market.  Sooner or later, rates will come back down.  This is one likely upside of the recession we are in, or headed into.  Also, the volatile nature of market means that rates can experience large swings down or up, just as we are seeing in stocks.  So opportunity could be around the corner.  Still, if you have found a house, but have not secured a rate, you should do so as soon as possible.

If you have an adjustable rate mortgage, you should know what “LIBOR” is…

LIBOR is an acronym for “London Inter-Bank Offered Rate.”  It is a measure of bank-to-bank borrowing costs. This is important to know because the turmoil in the credit markets is making inter-bank borrowing costs go way up. Of course, LIBOR is going up too. 

Many adjustable rate mortgages  (ARMs) are tied to LIBOR indexes. This means that folks with ARMs scheduled to adjust in the next few months could end up with higher rates than they expect.  For more information on LIBOR and other interest rates follow this link.

http://www.moneycafe.com/library/libor.htm

 

Anyone with additional questions or interest in refinancing out of a LIBOR ARM should scoll down to the bottom of the page and visit one of my business websites.  There you will find my phone number and e-mail.   

Do you want the good news or the bad news? Here’s both…

Today the House passed the bailout bill and President Bushed signed it into law.  The markets reacted positively initially, but the Dow still fell almost 160 points on weak jobs numbers. 159,000 jobs were lost in September. 

The bailout is probably a good thing.  But it is hard to tell for sure because if it ends up avoiding some catastrophe, obviously that catastrophe won’t happen and we won’t know definitively why it didn’t.  My take is that the whole thing was a “best guess” on the part of policy makers.  Probably more risk in in-action than action, so they acted. 

The jobs numbers are certainly a bad thing.  They indicate that the economy is slowing further.  So while the bailout may have avoided some unattractive outcomes, it has not and will not cure the economy. 

To end on a positive note, mortgage rates may improve next week.  Giving banks an opportunity to part ways with their worst assets should eventually make room for them to buy new mortgage bonds.  When they start buying, rates should improve.

Mortgage Money Still Available…

Everyone knows that the financial markets are under significant stress.  Large institutions have failed and inter-bank lending has nearly come to a standstill.  Never-the-less, mortgage money is still available.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that this not widely understood.

My intention with this post is to reassure potential buyers and hopeful sellers that qualified individuals can still get home loans.  Remember that the Government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The whole purpose of this nationalization / rescue was to maintain liquidity in the mortgage market. 

This does not mean that loans are as easy to get as they have been in the past.  Certainly some types of loans – jumbo, low-down payment, stated income – are getting harder to come by or have completely disappeared.  However,  prospective buyers should still apply for financing.  Many will be pleasantly surprised.